F1 Prediction: Italian Grand Prix 2026: Winner, surprise and top 10

Round 13 of the 2026 F1 season heads to Autodromo Nazionale di Monza on 2026-09-06. Here is who we think wins, who surprises, who flops and what happens across every session of the weekend.

🏆 Winner

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Mercedes

🎯 Big surprise

Charles Leclerc

Ferrari

💥 Big flop

Max Verstappen

Red Bull

GP Qualifying

Sat afternoon · top 10 shown

P	Driver	Team	Why
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	Six wins this season, P2 last time out in Zandvoort and Monza's power-unit sensitivity is a Mercedes stronghold in 2026; Antonelli's one-lap pace has been the benchmark all year.
2	Lando Norris	McLaren	Back-to-back wins at R11 and R12 put Norris in the form of his life and McLaren's 2026 aero package is efficient enough at low-downforce venues to challenge for pole.
3	George Russell	Mercedes	Russell has been inconsistent but his one-lap pace at power tracks is elite; P3 in Zandvoort qualifying suggests the car is dialled in heading into Monza.
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Leclerc qualified on pole at Monza in 2024 and Ferrari's straight-line speed on home soil remains a genuine threat even with a mid-season dip in form.
5	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	Hamilton has been the more consistent Ferrari driver across the season and his experience at Monza, where he has qualified top six in every recent visit, keeps him in the top five.
6	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Piastri's P2 and P3 at Monza in 2024 and 2025 show genuine circuit affinity and McLaren's package is strong enough to lock out the second row even if Piastri's recent form has dipped.
7	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Verstappen won at Monza in 2025 and his raw one-lap ability keeps him in Q3 contention despite Red Bull's 2026 reliability concerns, which matter less over a single flying lap.
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	Hadjar has been a consistent Q3 presence all season and Red Bull's straight-line grunt at Monza suits his aggressive qualifying style.
9	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	Gasly's P3 in Monaco and steady midfield qualifying pace give Alpine a realistic shot at the top nine on a circuit where slipstreaming can shuffle the order in Q3.
10	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	Lawson has been the more reliable RB driver across the season and scrapes into Q3 on a circuit where tow-assisted laps can elevate a midfield car by two or three positions.

🏁 Grand Prix Race: the top 10

Sunday, our definitive prediction

P	Driver	Team	Why
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	Converts pole to victory by managing the undercut window perfectly; Mercedes' superior tyre management in the 2026 regs means he can run a longer first stint and emerge ahead after stops.
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Gains two positions from P4 on the grid via a first-lap slipstream move into the Rettifilo chicane and Ferrari's aggressive one-stop strategy on home soil keeps him ahead of the McLarens.
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	Drops one place from qualifying as Leclerc's strategy is prioritised by Ferrari, but Hamilton's race-craft and tyre conservation secure a comfortable podium finish.
4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Loses a position to Leclerc at the start via the slipstream battle but McLaren's pace is strong enough to hold P4 through a clean two-stop race.
5	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Gains one place from P6 on the grid when Verstappen retires mid-race and Piastri's Monza track record of P2 and P3 in prior years shows he extracts the maximum from the McLaren here.
6	George Russell	Mercedes	Drops three places from P3 on the grid after a slow first pit stop costs him the undercut window against both Ferraris, a recurring strategic weakness for Russell this season.
7	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	Gains one place from P8 on the grid when Verstappen retires and manages a clean one-stop race to take P7, his best result at Monza.
8	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	Holds position through the first stint but Alpine's tyre degradation in the closing laps costs him a shot at the top six, finishing where his car's true pace places him.
9	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	Starts outside the top ten but gains positions through a safety car window that allows Alpine to pit both cars cheaply, with Colapinto's aggressive race-craft rewarding him with P9.
10	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	Drops from P10 on the grid to P10 in the race after losing ground at the start but recovers the position through consistent pace in the final stint.

☁ Weather picture

☀ Fri

🌡 18.9-32.7°💧 0%💨 4.9km/h

☀ Sat

🌡 21.8-33.4°💧 0%💨 10.1km/h

☀ Sun

🌡 23.1-32.1°💧 0%💨 7.9km/h

Friday at Monza is a non-event from a weather perspective: 0% rain, temperatures peaking at 32.7 degrees Celsius and a gentle 4.9 km/h breeze. Track evolution will be the only variable in practice and the dry, warm conditions will allow every team to run full aero programmes without interruption. No driver's wet-race column is relevant on Friday.Saturday brings slightly higher wind at 10.1 km/h and temperatures up to 33.4 degrees Celsius, still with 0% rain. Qualifying will be a pure dry shootout. The warm track surface will push tyre temperatures into the operating window quickly, which historically benefits Mercedes and McLaren in 2026 more than Ferrari. Leclerc's Monza pole in 2024 came in similar conditions, so Ferrari's straight-line advantage remains a genuine factor, but Antonelli's overall pace advantage this season makes him the clear pole favourite.Sunday's race day is the warmest of the weekend at a peak of 32.1 degrees Celsius with 0% rain and light 7.9 km/h wind. The dry, hot conditions will accelerate tyre degradation, making the pit-stop window critical. A two-stop race is plausible for the top runners and teams that can execute the undercut cleanly will gain positions. The wet-race columns for Antonelli (P1, P1) and Norris (P2, DNF) are irrelevant this weekend given the forecast, but their dry-race form is the decisive signal.Overall, the weekend is a pure performance exercise with no weather joker to play. Mercedes' power-unit advantage in the 2026 hybrid regs is the dominant factor at Monza's temple of speed and the clean, hot conditions will expose any car that struggles with tyre management over a long stint. Verstappen's Red Bull reliability concerns loom larger in a race that will run flat-out from lights to flag.